The Rapid Growth of Uncertainty Quantification in the 21st Century

Metro Toronto Convention Centre 

Sacks paper in 1989 (with Welch, Mitchell and Wynn), Design and Analysis of Computer Experiments (Statistical Science, 4, 409-435), arguably initiated what is now a huge field that spans statistics, applied mathematical modeling, engineering and many other disciplines. The field is called Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) outside of statistics, and involves the interaction of computer models (or other very complex models) with data, taking into account the many uncertainties inherent in the problem, including uncertainty in the computer models. At the National Institute of Statistical Sciences, Jerry made UQ one of the central initiatives, and started the growth of UQ. In the 21st century, this growth became exponential, including .a joint initiative in UQ between the ASA and the Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics (SIAM), involving interest groups, a new journal, and meetings. The first international conference in UQ of the ASA/SIAM initiative was in 2012; recognizing his central role in in founding the field, Jerry was one of two plenary speakers at the meeting. Jerry remained active in UQ research, participating extensively in UQ programs at SAMSI as late as 2019.